by Taylor Smith (tcsmith031) Last Updated 2024-04-02 18:16:36
Taylor Smith previews the Tuesday, April 2nd slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Last night’s pitching slate was a disaster, yet we did see close-to-ceiling games out of the likes of Ronel Blanco, Tanner Houck, and Sean Manaea. Things look quite a bit better on the pitching front ahead of tonight’s 9-game MLB DFS slate. Let’s hit a few news and notes and offer a bird’s-eye view of things over on DraftKings.
MLB DFS Picks & Lineup Advice Today
This daily article highlights some of RotoGrinders’ most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer (LineupHQ), with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then, we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- Unfortunately, there seems to be a pretty good chance that this becomes an 8-game slate in a hurry. Roth has DET/NYM tagged as ORANGE/RED as of this morning, with rain essentially set to pour down on Queens all day long. If they don’t PPD this one early, we’ll have to wait for Roth’s final pre-lock report on Crunch Time.
- ATL/CHW and COL/CHC are both YELLOW, with rain in the area along with cool temps. It sounds like we have some late start potential for both games, but things should clear up enough to get the games in. These are pitcher-friendly conditions in both parks tonight.
- The weather is nice enough in Phoenix to where the roof should be open for NYY/ARI, but the weather won’t be too different from how it would be with the roof shut.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- The Dodgers are rolling with a bullpen game tonight. Ryan Yarbrough will likely get into the game and handle a few innings, though he may not start. The matchup against the Giants isn’t really good enough to get me interested in a handful of Yarbo innings anyway.
- A number of starters will be making their 2nd starts of the season, though a few others will be making season debuts. Reynaldo Lopez, Javier Assad, Casey Mize, and Adrian Houser are the season debutants. Kyle Freeland, meanwhile, will try to bounce back after racking up -17 DK points in his first outing against Arizona. Yikes!
- Bo Bichette is still day-to-day with the neck spasms that have kept him out of the Toronto lineup for the last two days. Ernie Clement drew the start at shortstop for the Jays on Monday when they were no-hit by Blanco. Davis Schneider is in Toronto’s projected lineup in place of Kevin Kiermaier ahead of tonight’s matchup vs. southpaw Framber Valdez.
- Eloy Jimenez sat out yesterday after leaving Sunday’s game with an adductor injury. Gavin Sheets started in place of Eloy on Monday, and he’ll likely do so again tonight against Reynaldo Lopez if Eloy remains sidelined.
- Jason Heyward was out of the Dodgers lineup last night as a result of a sore lower back despite the Giants starting right-hander Keaton Winn. We currently have Heyward in tonight’s projected lineup batting 8th, but Chris Taylor could get the nod again here if Heyward sits.
- There’s no telling what the Giants will do with their lineup with the Dodgers trotting out a bullpen game, but we have LaMonte Wade projected to start and hit 3rd after he came off the bench last night. Gabe Kapler isn’t here anymore, so perhaps the Giants won’t be nearly as trigger-happy with platooning as they have been over the past couple of years. Patrick Bailey is also expected to catch, which will send Tom Murphy back to the bench.
- Jorge Barrosa and Blaze Alexander are projected to crack the Diamondbacks lineup tonight against lefty Nestor Cortes. Joc Pederson and Jake McCarthy are unlikely to start.
- The Braves (5.35) boast the highest implied run total on tonight’s slate, as they get a park upgrade going into Chicago to face lefty Garrett Crochet. Crochet excelled in his first career start last week against the Tigers, but the Braves are not the Tigers. The Astros are next up with a 4.69 total after their 10-run explosion yesterday. The Cubs, Dodgers, Yankees, DBacks, and Red Sox are the only other offenses on the slate projected for at least 4 runs.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on DraftKings.
- As mentioned, this slate features no shortage of aces. Shane Bieber ($8,800) looks like he’ll be popular again tonight in Seattle after a dominant debut last week in Oakland. This is a tougher matchup, but Bieber sure looked like his old self with 11 strikeouts on Opening Day. Brayan Bello ($8,000) comes in with a reasonable salary and a cushy matchup against those terrible A’s on the road. He’s going to be popular, and it’s hard to argue that he shouldn’t be.
- The case against Bello is that his numbers simply aren’t as good as those of several other pitchers going tonight. Luis Castillo, Zac Gallen, Logan Webb, Framber Valdez, Yu Darvish, and Nestor Cortes are all quality arms in more difficult matchups. We’re also likely to see some ownership on cheaper arms, including Reynaldo Lopez and Javier Assad. Lopez (revenge!) draws a matchup against that woeful White Sox lineup, while Assad gets to face the Rockies outside of Coors.
- The Cubs are projected to be a popular stack against Kyle Freeland, but the weather favoring pitchers could affect things. It’s clearly a good spot given Freeland’s struggles, but this is a stack to fade if they’re going to catch ownership. It’s also fair to assume the Braves will be popular because this is a day ending in “Y.” Crochet impressed in his debut, but this Atlanta lineup posted a .240 ISO with a .378 wOBA against LHP in 2023. This offense is a gauntlet, and there’s enough cheap pitching to make the stack affordable despite expensive salaries on Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson, and the rest of the Braves’ headliners.
- The Astros will take their swings against Jose Berrios, a pitcher who struggled to keep the ball in the yard against lefties a season ago. Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker predictably stand out, while Yainer Diaz ($3,300) and Jeremy Pena ($3,400) are both still too cheap. Houston is significantly cheaper on aggregate than Atlanta, and they’re also projected to pull a fraction of the Braves’ ownership despite having the 2nd-highest run total.
- Both sides of the NYY/ARI game are attackable despite Gallen and Cortes being above-average starters. With the Yankees, we’re likely getting a rare opportunity to stack them at low ownership. There’s enough power between Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gleyber Torres to make this a “stack every day” kind of team. Given the cool conditions in most places around the country at this time of the year, Arizona features some of the better hitting weather on the night too.
- If you want to go off the board, I don’t mind taking some shots on the Giants. Yarbrough isn’t an overpowering pitcher in the least, and this lineup has considerably more power than it did a season ago. They’re also getting a significant park boost going into Dodger Stadium. Matt Chapman ($4,200) and Jorge Soler ($4,600) are cheap for the power upside they bring to the table. In fact, Soler is the most expensive hitter in San Francisco’s projected lineup. If you’re paying up for pitching, the Giants stand out as an affordable stack to pair with those aces.
- A few value bats worth considering as one-offs are Victor Scott ($2,000), Yainer Diaz ($3,300), JJ Bleday ($3,200), LaMonte Wade ($3,400), Ryan Noda ($3,500), and Graham Pauley ($3,500).
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and the projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey (which can be found on the MLB Content Schedule), and Expert Plays in LineupHQ from our stable of contributors.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch our GrindersLive and Crunch Time Show Block, beginning at 5:00 PM ET.
Good luck tonight!
Image Credit: Getty Images
